The state of global peace has reached a historic inflection point, and the news is not good. According to the inaugural Global Peace Alliance (GPA) Peace Index, conflict deaths have reached a 25-year high and the number of state-based conflicts is at levels not seen since World War II. The Index paints a stark picture of a world where traditional conflict resolution mechanisms—like peace agreements, which are at a historic low —are failing to keep pace with new, rapidly evolving forms of warfare.
But the most alarming finding is not the scale of conventional violence; it is the fundamental change in its nature. For decades, cyberattacks were viewed primarily as espionage, data theft, or digital disruption—a separate domain from physical war. The 2025 GPA Peace Index reveals that this distinction is now dead. We have entered the era of cyber-kinetic convergence, a new phase of conflict where the digital battlefield is seamlessly merged with the physical. The Index states unequivocally that this is an “unprecedented” development, pioneered by nation-state actors. The blurring of digital and kinetic operations is now listed as a primary Major Emerging Threat.
The 300% Surge: Hacking as the New Reconnaissance
Cyber-kinetic convergence refers to a terrifying operational loop: digital reconnaissance—hacking and accessing systems—that directly supports and guides physical military strikes. This isn’t just surveillance; it is the digital equivalent of a spotter guiding artillery, executed with inhuman speed and precision. In 2024 alone, the primary actors driving this convergence—identified by the GPA Index as Chinese, Russian, Iranian, and North Korean threat actors—conducted over 430 nationally significant cyberattacks.
This figure represents a staggering 300% increase in major state-sponsored cyberattacks over 2023.
This explosive rise demonstrates that cyber tools are no longer being used merely to harass or spy; they are now embedded as mission-essential elements of conventional warfighting strategy. The digital domain has become the primary vector for pre-positioning, reconnaissance, and battlefield advantage.
Case Files: From Battlefield Targeting to Strategic Pre-Positioning
The GPA Index provides chilling case examples that illustrate the full spectrum of this new, converged warfare, demonstrating how state actors are using digital tools to enable physical military objectives, ranging from tactical strikes in active conflicts to strategic preparations for future wars.
The Operational Loop: Cyber-Targeted Air-Defense Strikes
Perhaps the clearest real-world model of cyber-kinetic convergence comes from the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. The Index notes the use of a sophisticated “digital-physical operational loop” by Russian forces. In this model, Russian cyber reconnaissance is deployed to penetrate and identify the precise locations of Ukrainian air defense systems. Once these digital signatures are verified, the information is immediately handed over to military units, enabling kinetic strikes—such as missile or drone attacks—to destroy the identified air-defense positions within a matter of hours.
This capability dramatically compresses the kill-chain, rendering traditional defenses less effective and blurring the line between a computer network operation and a conventional military assault. It is a devastatingly efficient way to achieve battlefield superiority, showcasing how digital access can lead to immediate physical destruction.
Volt Typhoon: The Strategic Threat to U.S. Infrastructure
The threat, however, extends far beyond the active warzone. The GPA Index highlights the activities of the Chinese state-sponsored group Volt Typhoon, which has been assessed as engaging in strategic pre-positioning. Volt Typhoon malware has been found deeply embedded in crucial U.S. critical infrastructure, specifically systems controlling water, energy, and communications.
Intelligence assessments indicate that this isn’t merely a data-gathering operation. The malware is believed to be pre-positioned as a contingency plan for a major conflict, such as one over Taiwan. The goal is clear: to have the capability to launch cyberattacks that would effectively disable the United States’ ability to respond militarily to an event in the Asia-Pacific region. This is not an attack for profit or data; it is a strategic maneuver designed to paralyze a major adversary’s physical power projections through digital means.
North Korea: The Nexus of Cyber-Crime and Proliferation
Finally, North Korea’s activity, primarily through groups like the Lazarus Group, demonstrates another dangerous convergence: that of cyber-crime and weapons development. North Korean actors have been responsible for over 30 major attacks, stealing more than $3 billion since 2017. This massive cryptocurrency theft is not for individual gain; it is explicitly used to fund the nation’s increasingly sophisticated and aggressive nuclear and missile programs. In this case, cyber exploitation is the economic engine that drives physical proliferation, effectively bypassing international sanctions and demonstrating that the cyber domain is now a crucial source of war financing.
A Global Framework Built for Yesterday’s Wars
Despite the undeniable arrival of cyber-kinetic warfare, the GPA Index warns that existing peace and security frameworks are catastrophically unprepared for this new reality.
For decades, traditional peace indices and conflict analysis have focused almost exclusively on conventional metrics: conflict deaths, military spending, and political stability. These traditional frameworks—like the Global Peace Index and the Fragile States Index—either give cyber-related threats limited consideration or do not include them at all.
This exclusion is a massive, systemic failure. It means that the institutions charged with maintaining global peace are essentially measuring a world that no longer exists. How can policymakers accurately assess the risk of war when the most significant emerging threat, the blurring of digital and kinetic operations, is being critically underweighted? The current international environment is characterized by a lack of shared rules: there is currently no binding international treaty on cyber warfare. This vacuum of norms means that nations are operating in a digital wild west, where the rules of engagement for attacks that can cause physical harm are nonexistent, destabilizing the entire global security environment. The Index makes clear that traditional great power diplomacy has failed to address this critical gap.
The GPA Index: Measuring the 21st Century Threat
The Global Peace Alliance Index seeks to correct this critical blind spot in global security assessment. The GPA methodology is fundamentally different because it is explicitly designed to assess emerging threat vectors, including the climate-conflict nexus and, crucially, cyber warfare.
The GPA Index assigns a dedicated 10% weight to a standalone “Cyber Security” component, integrating metrics like the volume of critical infrastructure attacks and the severity of state-sponsored cyber activity into the final peace score calculation. By embedding these indicators alongside traditional measures of direct violence and political stability, the Index provides a comprehensive, forward-looking assessment of where the next war is most likely to erupt or escalate.
This dedicated inclusion matters profoundly. It is a declaration that the stability of a nation is no longer solely defined by its troop numbers or its political corruption levels, but also by the vulnerability of its electrical grid, its water supply, and its telecommunications networks to digital infiltration. Peace in the 21st century is digital. Until global security architecture reflects this reality, we will continue to misdiagnose risk, under-resource prevention, and be caught dangerously flat-footed by the next major conflict. The data in this inaugural index is a wakeup call to the world: cyber-enabled warfare is not a future possibility, but a present reality that demands immediate and comprehensive attention.
Call to Action
The evidence is clear: fragmented approaches and frameworks built for the Cold War are obsolete. We stand at a dangerous crossroads where continuing these approaches will only lead to more conflicts, casualties, and displacement. Sustainable peace now requires institutions that are explicitly designed for peace in the context of converging threats.
We invite policymakers, analysts, journalists, and global citizens to examine this vital new index and see how the explicit integration of cyber indicators provides a clearer, more honest view of global risk. The path forward is visible, but what remains is political will.
Read the full report and see the methodology, country rankings, and policy recommendations for yourself at https://shorturl.at/xYhpB.